USA VS IRAN- CAN IRAN STOP THE USA?

USA VS IRAN- CAN IRAN STOP THE USA?

 

          United states geography is both its strength and weakness. What allowed the U.S to became a superpower is because it was far from other superpowers.

 

          And its located between Europe and China, which gives it a geographic superiority to trade with both continents easily. But since it’s located across the Atlantic, it can’t project power.

 

          In case of a conflict, it’s not easy to transfer hundreds of thousands of troops and equipment across the Atlantic. To prevent that, the United States decided not to close down its military bases that it built during world war II.

 

          Instead, it kept increasing them to show the world that the U.S can get anywhere fast. The USS Gerald R.Ford is the largest aircraft carrier and can carry up to 75 fighter jets. Considering that most of Iran’s jets are too old, a single U.S aircraft carrier is probably more powerful than Iran’s entire air force.

 

          And the U.S has at least 11 of them. The first priority of the U.S army would be to secure air superiority. So it would first start attacking Iran’s runways, airports, maintenance facilities, radars to demolish Iran’s air force completely. Without proper runways, most of these planes would be useless.

 

          Secondly, it will probably start targeting Iran’s infrastructure by destroying roads, bridges, power stations. Iran has some impressive defense equipment, but considering the United States’ superior technology, it would probably be able to do that.

 

          Land invasion is impossible. On 22 September 1980, Iraq decided to invade Iran. It began by the annexation of the oil-rich Khuzestan province, which borders Iraq. Despite Iran’s efforts to defend the region, it failed. Iraq made colossal progress in taking over the province, mainly because of its plain land, which makes it easy to transport troops.

 

          But it couldn’t move forward since the rest of Iran is defended by Zagros mountains. It was fairly easy for Iranians to stop the enemy. In a couple of years, Iran joined its forces and pushed back Iraq conquering the Khuzestan province and started a counter-invasion of Iraq. Despite Iranians air superiority, Iran couldn’t progress forward since its supply lines had to go through the Zagros mountains, which made it difficult and expensive.

 

          Zagros mountains are both an advantage and a weakness to Iran. The United States can destroy Iran’s air force and damage its infrastructure, but it can’t invade it because that would be a disaster for the U.S army since land invasion will most probably be made through Iraq and Kuwait since on the east its borders Afghanistan and Pakistan which are also mountain countries.

 

          Iran can keep fighting the guerrilla war in these Zagros mountains that U.S casualties will be too high. Especially since unlike Iraq, Iran is a much bigger country with a much larger population. So the U.S will have to move at least half a million troops through Zagros mountains, which can be suicidal.

 

          Since the United States is located across the Atlantic, it will heavily rely on its allies in the middle east. Currently, the U.S has military bases in Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, Oman, United Arab Emirates, and Jordan. So the U.S already has a built-in infrastructure to carry on an invasion. It can quickly deploy a few hundred thousand troops.

 

          On top of that, U.S allies such as the United Kingdom, Australia, and other NATO members will send troops to the field as they did back in the Iraq war. That doesn’t mean Iran doesn’t have any friends in the region. For the last few decades, it has been imposing its hegemony on the neighboring countries.

 

          Its militia forces in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen will probably help Iran carry on frequent attacks on U.S bases and harass U.S troops. Despite its warm relationship with Russia and China, none of these countries would dare to help Iran since keeping a friendly relationship with the U.S is far more critical.

 

          Especially since Russia has been suffering economically due to international sanctions that were imposed on it since it annexed Crimea. Iran probably has one of the best militaries in the middle east. It has the best-trained pilots since it has been militarily active for decades now and manufactures much equipment internally, including ballistic missiles. They even developed their own fighter jets such as Kosar based on the American Northrop F-5.

 

           Overall, the Iran air force consists of 509 planes out of which 155 are fighter jets. But most of these jets are old and do not match the modern U.S planes that are considered best in the world. Especially when the U.S has over 2 thousand of them(fighter jets). In fact, the U.S has the largest air force in the world. On land, the United States is much more superior and has dozens of thousands of more vehicles than Iran.

 

           If you compare both countries’ financial resources, then Iran doesn’t even have 1/10 of the U.S budget. The United States 721 billion dollar defense budget is almost twice the size of Iran’s entire economy (Iran GDP).

 

          Iran perfectly knows that it can’t match the U.S military might. That’s why it’s not even trying because it needs a far bigger economy, which is not possible in the short run. Iran is more focused on defensive strategy. It wants a war with Iran to look so expensive that the U.S won’t risk starting it. That was the point of the nuclear program.

 

           U.S would never risk attacking any country with nuclear capabilities since it poses a significant threat to the U.S military even if the U.S has the upper hand. But besides that, Iran has been heavily investing in defensive equipment.

 

          They purchased S300 which are Russian long-range surface-to-air missile systems. It was developed to defend against or safe against the aircraft and cruise missiles. They even produced their own version called Vivar 373, which is proven to be quite effective.

 

          They also have a good number of Nebo M radar system to detect the target. However, after multiple attempts to purchase S400, their Russian counterparts refused to sell them. Iran’s most dangerous weapon is probably ballistic missiles.

 

          In 2017, they hit a target in Syria accurately that was 600 miles away. Iran can launch hundreds of them hitting all U.S bases across the region. The United States usually starts a war when it’s confident that it can win decisively with minimum losses.

 

          The moment the war looks too expensive for the taxpayers, the U.S would instead choose diplomacy.

 

          In 1985 the U.S sent troops to invade Vietnam, and back then, it seemed like an underdeveloped small nation like Vietnam has no chance to stand against a global superpower. Vietnam knew that they couldn’t win a conventional war, so they focused more on the guerrilla war, which proved to be effective.

 

          Despite the progress the U.S has been making, casualties were rising, and morale was down. Since this war was the first war that the U.S fought in front of television screens, the public opinion was against it, with thousands protesting against the war.

 

          Under intense public pressure, the U.S was forced to leave Vietnam without winning. Just because the U.S is the sole superpower doesn’t mean it can take easily take over Iran. With a population of over 80 million people and a country that’s filled with mountains.

 

          Iran would certainly choose a gorilla war that the United States simply cannot win. In November 1979, a group of students seized the American embassy and took hostage 52 American diplomats and citizens for 444 days.

 

          The United States imposed sanctions on Iran by freezing about $12 billion in Iranian assets, including bank deposits, gold, and other properties.

 

           After the invasion of Iran by Iraq, the United States increased sanctions against Iran. As years passed, the U.S imposed more and more sanctions and prohibited its allies from trading with Iran, which for over four decades now slowed down growth in the country and crippled its economy.

 

           As life is getting harsher, the lack of basic necessities is forcing people to protest against the government. And that is the U.S’s plan to isolate Iran so badly that the people of Iran will get to the streets to overthrow the regime.

 

           However, Iran negotiated a deal with the U.S and Europe to end its nuclear program in exchange for lifting out most of the sanctions. But the current president of the United States decided to withdraw from it, which was pretty painful.

 

           In 2018, inflation rose In Iran to 31.18 percent, in 2019, it hit a record high of 41 percent. And if it keeps rising like that, the currency could completely crush and devastate the entire Iranian economy, which seems like the U.S’s plan to win over Iran.